Earlier this month, the National Union party joined an initiative to expel MK Ayman Odeh—the leader of the predominantly Arab Hadash party—from the Knesset. Its lawmakers’ signatures raised the number of supporters to 70, giving the coalition enough backing to launch formal expulsion proceedings in the House Committee. Still, Odeh is unlikely to be removed over his remarks condemning Israel’s war in Gaza: the move would require 90 votes in the full plenum, and he has already announced he will not run in the next election.

This does not mean, of course, that the decision by National Union leader Benny Gantz to support Odeh’s ejection will not have far-reaching consequences – and not necessarily in a way that will benefit Gantz. While the United Arab List supported the so-called government of change – the short-lived coalition headed, in rotation, by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid – the alliance between the center-left bloc and the Arab sector was always accompanied by mutual suspicion.Not only because of Lapid’s remark ahead of the 2013 election, when he said he wouldn’t form a veto bloc with “the Zoabis” (a comment he later clarified was directed specifically at the controversial then-MK Hanin Zoabi, and not at Arab lawmakers in general), or because of Gantz’s speech last month at a settlement conference organized by the right-wing newspaper Makor Rishon in Ofra, where he offered enthusiastic praise for the settlement movement.

“These relationships are highly fluid,” said Dr. Ameer Fakhoury, a scholar of political communities at the Van Leer Institute. “Jewish parties are more inclined to consider including Arabs in the government when it suits their political needs. This was evident in the public opinion polls during the judicial overhaul. The moral justifications always come afterward.”

“These relationships are highly fluid,” said Dr. Ameer Fakhoury, who studies political communities at the Van Leer Institute. “Jewish parties tend to consider including Arabs in the government when it serves their political interests. This was evident in public opinion polls during the judicial overhaul. The moral justifications always come later.”

The National Unity party’s decision to support the move to expel Odeh has not only further strained already fragile relations in the wake of the October 7 attacks, but also deepened Arab voters’ disillusionment with the idea that any Israeli government could truly represent their interests as citizens.

“I’m not sure if Gantz understands that, in doing what he did, he was manipulated into joining an active campaign, the goal of which is to repress the Arab vote at the next election,” says Hadash lawmaker Aida Touma-Suleiman. When Arab voters see that their elected representatives are silenced and ejected, and that the establishment decides who is allowed to represent them in parliament and who is not, they ask themselves if there is any point in even voting, given that they are trying to impose the ‘good Arab’ as our representative. Gantz is pathetically trying to woo right-wing voters, but he is also causing the Arab public to lose what little faith it still had in the Israeli political system. And if these Arab voters stay at home on Election Day, Gantz will stay in opposition. We will not be the bridge that the center-left Zionist parties walk over to get into power.”

Gantz may not have understood the significance, “but Netanyahu certainly did,” according to Samer Swaid, the director of the Arab Center for Alternative Planning (ACAP), which has formed a coalition of organizations dedicated to encouraging voting in the Arab sector. “According to our calculations, if the voter turnout among Arabs is over 60 percent, there is no chance of a right-wing government being established in Israel. The problem is that the bloc competing against Netanyahu acts as if it doesn’t grasp that a high voter turnout in the Arab sector will secure its victory in the election. With the exception of Yair Golan, all of the parties in that bloc have declared that they will only establish a government with the Arab parties if the 61^st seat comes from a Zionist party.”

Have you tried to explain this to them?

“We contacted all of the center-left parties, to explain the importance of increasing Arab voter participation – for us and for them. We managed to get a meeting with Golan. Of all of the leaders from that bloc, he is the one who best understands the strategic influence of his comments on the size of the bloc. We didn’t get meetings with Gantz or Lapid, only with the advisors of other MKs from their parties, who told us that they understand – but that there are other considerations.”

"We didn’t get meetings with Gantz or Lapid, only with the advisors of other MKs from their parties, who told us that they understand – but that there are other considerations.”

Voting or vote suppression | ‘The seats will be divided differently’

The profound delegitimization that Benjamin Netanyahu has wrought to the political power of Israel’s Arab citizens over the years can only be compared to what he has done to the concept of being a “leftist,” which he has twisted from a legitimate political position to a term of disdain. “Netanyahu very much wants the Arabs to stay home,” says Ron Gerlitz, CEO of aChord, “because the only time since 2009 that he has not been prime minister was in 2021, when an Arab party – the United Arab List – joined the coalition. To his credit, it should be noted that even back in the 1990s he realized that the Arab vote is key to victory or defeat in an election.”

Did Netanyahu’s 2015 Election Day remark—when he sought to rally supporters by warning that “Arabs are voting in droves”—mark a pivotal turning point in his delegitimization campaign?

“It was. It was insane that the person who headed the party in power for so many years was busying himself with disenfranchising the representation of a political minority. That also manifested itself in an attempt to disqualify Arab parties, because doing so increases the relative strength of the right in terms of seats available. And when that didn’t work, the campaign focused on denying the legitimacy of a government that relies on Arab lawmakers, claiming that they support terrorism – even though Netanyahu himself held negotiations with (United Arab List chair) Mansour Abbas.”

"The center-left leaders have a dramatic impact on the Arab public’s decision on whether to vote or not."

In the last election, it was even more sophisticated.

“There were billboards put up in Arab communities, saying ‘No unification? No voting,’ but it was already too late for the Arab parties to run on a joint ticket. An investigation by Channel 13 News revealed that the billboards were paid for by a right-wing body, which sought to push down the Arab voter turnout in a supposed protest against the separate lists.”

Delegitimization can also encourage people to vote. Does it necessarily repress turnout?

“The Arab public wants some influence over their lives. Every study done shows that influence is a major factor for them, especially given that the current government is bad for them from every perspective – from its handling of crime and violence to the worsening poverty and unemployment. The center-left leaders have a dramatic impact on the Arab public’s decision on whether to vote or not. If they were to undertake to tackle these problems and to integrate the representatives of the Arab public in the coalition, after agreeing on common coalition guidelines, Arabs will go out and vote. When Gantz said in New York that he supports the mass voluntary migration of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip or that a coalition with the United Arab List was ‘a failed experiment,’ he is not only driving down voter turnout, he’s shooting himself in the foot.”

Gantz and Lapid are afraid that such an embrace would alienate moderate, center-right voters.

“Not only would they not pay a political price, because their camp supports it and anyone who doesn’t will in any case vote for the opposing camp – that is exactly what will transform them from opposition parties to the government. When voter turnout among the Arabs is high, the seats will be divided differently.”

"I’m sure Bennett doesn’t want to form a government with Arabs, just like he didn’t want one last time around, but did so anyway. If we vote in high numbers, even if we are not part of the government, we will have a coalition that we can work with and not a coalition with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.”

Wasted Votes and Fading Faith: The Struggle for Arab Political Power

Voter turnout in the Arab sector has always been lower than among the Jewish electorate. “We make up 21 percent of the population, but only 17 percent of the electorate, because there is a high proportion of under-18s in Arab society,” Swaid explains. “But we can still win up to 18 or 19 seats, if we emulate the 70 percent voter turnout in the Jewish sector. If that were to happen, 15 seats would go to Arab parties, center-left parties would get two-and-a-half seats from Arab voters and the rest would be divided among the other parties.”

“Everyone understands that the Arab parties cannot afford to compete on three separate lists if they want to avoid wasting 140,000 votes like last time.”

Such a scenario is extremely optimistic, given that the Arab parties currently have 10 seats – five each to the United Arab List and the Hadash-Ta’al alliance. Even taking into account the three seats that went to waste since Balad failed to cross the electoral threshold, there is still a gap between the 13 seats that Arab parties would have won in 2022 and Swaid’s optimistic estimates. This is especially true since no one knows whether Arab voters will understand the importance of the opportunity and cast their votes or whether the policies of the current government will only serve to exacerbate their despair. 

“Everyone understands that the Arab parties cannot afford to compete on three separate lists if they want to avoid wasting 140,000 votes like last time,” Swaid says. “There is public pressure for unification. There is realistic talk about running on two tickets with a surplus-vote agreement between them, so that if voter turnout is similar to the last election, they would win 12 seats, rather than 10.”

How will those lists be divided?

“The talk is of a three-to-one division. Hadash, Ta’al and Balad will form one list and the United Arab List will be separate, because that makes sense ideologically. But there’s also the possibility of two-two, in which case it’s not yet clear how they would line up. In the end, politics is all about constraints. I’m sure Naftali Bennett doesn’t want to form a government with Arabs, just like he didn’t want one last time around, but did so anyway. If we vote in high numbers, even if we are not part of the government, we will have a coalition that we can work with and not a coalition with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.”

Balad chair Sami Abu Shehadeh and Ta’al leader MK Ahmad Tibi declined to speak to Shomrim about the issue. Touma-Suleiman has this to say about the negotiations: “We completed a round of talks where each party sat one-on-one with each of the three other parties to understand what we agree on and what we don’t. The United Arab List insists on negotiating being part of a coalition with any party, while the other parties want to agree on red lines that will not be crossed. Of course, if there’s a government with which we can reach political understandings, we will consider it – but we won’t tie our hands by agreeing to their approach.”

Maybe you don’t have the luxury of being too fussy?

“We understand that we are at a dangerous point in time and that we have to compromise to increase the influence and representation of Arabs, but not at the cost of violating our principles. After everything we have been through in terms of oppression and defamation over the past two years, we will not simply take funding and shut up. That’s the ultra-Orthodox way of doing politics, not ours.”

“We do not need the left telling us to ‘Go out and vote for us.’ Instead, they should be saying ‘Go out and vote so that you can have normal lives.”

Aadel Hamamdeh, a civics teacher at the Segev Shalom High School who has a popular Facebook page on which he posts political analyses, explains: “It would be best if all the Arab parties ran together. That isn’t happening, for now, because of games between the United Arab List and Hadash. Mansour Abbas says that, since he was in second place in previous elections, it’s his turn to be head of the combined list – especially given that his party is currently the strongest Arab party. There is some justification to his arguments. Hadash is still weighing up all its options.”

Amjad Shbita, the general secretary of Hadash, refuses to see this dispute in terms of a power struggle. Rather, he views it as “a serious political argument.”

“Hadash wants a list that will also be effective after the election, one that’s based on a shared political platform, but and the United Arab List is insisting that we go to an election, get as many seats as possible – and then dismantle the partnership with each side acting only according to its own position and its own interests. They are making no secret of their intention to join any government. It’s not an argument that cannot be resolved, but this is where things stand right now.”

The question of how the Arab parties will overcome their ideological differences to unite is currently seen as marginal – certainly in the context of the next election. “The voters really don't care that Balad’s ideology is one of settler colonialism and that Hadash is a Marxist-Leninist party,” says Dr. Fakhoury with disdain. “All of that political philosophy is somewhere between negligible and academic when you focus on the basic demands of Arab voters in terms of crime, planning and construction and an end to the occupation. When it comes to political pragmatism, the demands are all the same.”

Among Jewish voters, the next election is seen as particularly fateful, given the ongoing war in Gaza and the judicial overhaul. Is it the same in the Arab sector?

“Arabs on both sides of the Green Line do not see it as a crucial election, because the next government will not introduce any changes on issues that the Jews refused to recognize. It will take years for this disaster to end and a new leadership will emerge, capable of offering something different.

Hamamdeh also does not think it is worthwhile to speculate about fateful elections. “We do not need the left telling us to ‘Go out and vote for us.’ Instead, they should be saying ‘Go out and vote so that you can have normal lives in this country, to protect your rights.’ That is what has an impact.”

What is most important when it comes to rights?

“The Arabs in southern Israel are most angry because of the house demolitions; the Arabs in the north are most angry over the rise in crime. Cooperation with the left has to include voter encouragement plans and assistance on Election Day. There has to be a presence in Arab villages.”

Businessman Avi Shaked wants to set up a joint Jewish-Arab party. How is that being perceived?

“It won’t get past the electoral threshold. Arabs will first and foremost vote for an Arab party. It would be a waste of votes.”

"If the Arab voters stay at home on Election Day, Gantz will stay in opposition. We will not be the bridge that the center-left Zionist parties walk over to get into power.”

On the pitch or on the sidelines | ‘We want a list that makes a difference’

Mansour Abbas did not respond to Shomrim’s request for comment, but two lawmakers from his party – Walid Taha and Walid al-Huashla – did not rule out the possibility that the United Arab List could join a right-wing government after the next election. Both replied that they would discuss the issue after the election when they were asked whether it was an option from their perspective.

Taha and al-Huashla were both quite open about their preference for a temporary electoral alliance that would disintegrate after the election – or running on separate tickets from the outset. “If Hadash, Balad and the United Arab List run as one party without us – we’d be delighted,” said Taha, who heads the party’s parliamentary faction. “If it doesn’t work out, we’ll run as two lists, both with two members, not no more than that. We will decide on the composition by September.”

“All of the polls we have done recently show that 80 percent of the Arab public wants a party that is part of the government or at least part of a vetoing bloc."

Al-Huashla adds that, “All of the polls we have done recently show that 80 percent of the Arab public wants a party that is part of the government or at least part of a vetoing bloc. It is clear to the United Arab List – and this is also something that came up in our talks with Hadash in Nazareth two weeks ago – that there is a political game that must be played and that you cannot do so from the sidelines. We want a list that makes a difference, that does not automatically join the ranks of the opposition. A party that will achieve things, as the United Arab List did during the Bennett-Lapid government. We are pinning our hopes on the next government because we are currently a society that is being pummeled by violence and house demolitions.”

Would you want to join the coalition even if Netanyahu remains prime minister?

“That is a decision we will take in real time, not now. There are party institutions to take into account, as well as the feeling in Arab society. There are a lot of parameters. In 2021, the United Arab List also made a decision only after the election, in accordance with the interests of Arab society. And the truth is that incitement then was not as bad as it is today and crime was on a downward trend. As far as we are concerned, there’s nothing wrong with a technical bloc.”

The chances of Abbas joining a coalition are not high. “If they manage to put together a government without him, then no one will pick up the phone to call him,” Fakhoury says. “The same is true if there is a center-left government. October 7 destroyed relations between the liberal center and the Arabs. The same people who carried placards about democracy during the protests against the judicial overhaul are the same people who bombed Gaza and did not stand up for Arabs when they were being silenced. Did you hear Gantz or Lapid calling for Arabs to be allowed to demonstrate against the war?”

Sometimes you have to make less-than-ideal choices in order to make a difference.

“The voter turnout in the Arab sector in the next election will be higher because of fear – not because of any process of Israelization. They look around at what is happening in Gaza and the West Bank and they understand that citizenship protects them from a similar fate. I agree that people have learned to better differentiate between the Jewish politicians. Two days before the last election, one Arab politician said – and may God forgive him for this – that there is no difference between Gantz and Ben-Gvir.”

Who said that?

“I’m not comfortable saying. Now, no Arab politician would say something that stupid. I’m not presenting this as an anecdote; there is a profound change in perception. Arab voters have learned to better differentiate between the shades of Jewish and Zionist politics and not to downplay the differences, because failing to distinguish cost us very heavily in the last election.”

How do Arab citizens feel about Yair Golan? On the one hand, he’s on the left margins of the political spectrum, but, on the other hand, he’s a former deputy army chief who has been involved in many operations.

“They look at him more appreciatively, as a sane voice or potential partner, but they would not vote for him instead of an Arab party.”

Preparing for disqualifications | All eyes on the Central Election Committee

There will be no announcements about alliance with the liberal-democratic camp any time soon. “We are not holding out hope of any such alliance before the election,” says Shbita. “None of them have the courage to openly say that Arab parties are viable partners. Even if Golan has made comments along these lines of late, he won’t be the one forming the next government and it is unclear whether he truly believes it or whether he’s just trying to differentiate himself from the others. The only expectations we have of that bloc are that they take responsibility for their representatives on the Central Elections Committee and make sure that they do not collaborate with efforts to disqualify candidates and parties – and that they prevent any such legislations being passed by the Knesset.”

It is no coincidence that Amendment 7A to the Basic Law on the Knesset – which would expand the reasons for barring an individual or a party from running in the election and would limit judicial oversight by the High Court of Justice over decisions by the Central Elections Committee – is being pushed by MK Ophir Katz (Likud) who is coalition whip and wields huge influence over the legislative process. Shomrim has covered the dangerous ramifications of this bill in depth, as part of its coverage of the judicial overhaul which is designed to ensure that the next election is less fair and open than ever before.

Katz’s proposed amendment is worded in a way that effectively targets Arab candidates while excluding Jewish ones. It applies different standards to Jewish and Palestinian terrorism and allows authorities to use isolated remarks as grounds for disqualification. The bill is still being finalized ahead of its first reading in the Knesset, and the last committee meeting on the matter took place in December. “We were able to block further discussions with the help of several organizations,” says Yanal Jabarin, Director of Public Affairs at the Abraham Initiatives, with evident pride. “If the Knesset is dissolved during the winter session and the amendment is passed through backdoor tactics, we can appeal to the High Court of Justice, as it could be considered ad hominem legislation.”

“We are preparing for all kinds of eventualities,” says Taha from the United Arab List. “In the previous election, the right did not seek to disqualify Balad because it wanted them to run alone and waste votes. We believe it could happen again and the right will only seek to disqualify it if it joins forces with other Arab parties. On the other hand, it will be harder to disqualify a unified list.”

Another concern is that the disqualification of one party would lead to a general boycott of the election and that Arab voters would stay home on Election Day. This is especially true given that Balad, which is the usual target for right-wing disqualification efforts, has attracted a lot of young voters, who are in any case feeling alienated from and angry toward the state. “This is an issue that bothers us greatly,” Swaid says. “According to our polling, just 40 percent of Arab citizens between 18 and 24 said that they plan on voting, compared to the overall voter turnout of 54 percent. There are other polls which gave similar results.”

What are you doing to change the situation?

“We set up an independent Arab youth movement, which encourages civil involvement and has about 25 branches.”

“Our biggest worry is that young people won’t see any horizon,” says Touma-Suleiman in summary. She has served in the Knesset since 2015 and, according to the Hadash constitution, she will need the backing of two-thirds of the party’s delegates in order to run for another term. “We tell them that, no matter what government is formed, it won’t be the government of their dreams or ours, but there will be someone that we can do business with. We have to offer them hope that their lives will be better.”